It can be hard to make sense of real estate markets when the standard of commentary in news media is so poor.
Knee-jerk responses to short-term data sets from economists, journalists and often the big-name research houses create a mass of confusing, conflicting and contradictory commentary.
Commentary around price data is the worst example of this, with too much importance put on short-term results.
Real estate is a slow-moving and long-term business, so data showing one month’s change in median house prices is meaningless.
Yet, we have commentators declaring a downturn based on one or two months’ worth of lukewarm figures.
Most know it's wrong, but they just can’t seem to resist generating outrageous headlines.
The headline on a press release from one data house at the start of March declared:
Housing Downturn Reverses in February!
Did we have a housing downturn? Apparently, two months of softer figures constitute a downturn these days and then a rise of 0.3% meant it was all over.
Quarterly figures are more meaningful and the key quarterly figures this month show:
Perth house prices are no longer growing, its boom has well and truly passed its peak
Adelaide, Darwin and Brisbane had the best growth among the capital cities and regional Queensland, South Australia and West Australia had the best quarterly growth.
Sydney and Melbourne house prices are down about 1% over the quarter. Both had small increases in February but it’s too soon to say whether this is a serious recovery.